All of This Has Happened Before and It Will Happen Again
All of this has happened before, and it will all happen again…
Just as the creator of Peter Pan said, and Battlestar Galactica reiterated time after time — humans are simply incapable of conjuring upward new flows of events. Hell, nosotros can't even come with new phrases to utilize…
The war in Ukraine is the latest testament to this time honored truth.
Lets take another walk through history and await at the flow of events in more than recent history that appears to exist repeating itself nigh word for word. In my original commodity, I purposely skimmed over the events of WWI and WWII, equally they require a deep dive of their own, simply as the war progressed, information technology became more and more than obvious to me that nosotros don't need to look dorsum a full millennium, a simple century will do just fine.
Synopsis: Soviet takeover of Ukraine between 1917 and 1921 and its retaking between 1943 and 1945 bear an uncanny resemblance to what is happening today in terms of the rhetoric (both domestic and strange), the propaganda, the human cost, and of course military operations.
First, let'southward exist clear that since the end of the Viking Historic period and the Mongol invasions, there take been two Ukraines — East, mostly nether Poland, and West, the free people of the Sich. The split was fundamental from the beginning, with Poland being at the aforementioned time politically enlightened and also a ruthless (barely) post-medieval feudal conquerer state with regal ambitions. Meanwhile, the Sich was a no-human being's-country at the westernmost edge of the great eurasian steppe, where one was both free and at the same time constantly under threat.
By the 17th century, the East further split into Northward, which fell nether the influence of the Russian Tsardom, and S, which remained every bit a neutral state that bounced between farming and mercenary activities. Technically, in that location were farther subdivisions, as reflected in old maps from those times…
In the 18th century, the rise of Austro-Hungarian Empire saw the latter annex a big portion of western Ukraine as a gesture of gratitude for the support it received from the Zaporozhian cossacks in the Battle of Vienna in 1683.
And then past the fourth dimension the Russian Revolution took place in 1917, at that place were actually at least four separate "Ukraines"… non even counting Crimea, which had pretty much nothing to practise with any of them.
As a smaller scale reflection of the rest of Europe at the onset of WWI, Ukraine'due south separate regions were simultaneously politically and financially influenced/manipulated by their ruling powers, including Germany, Poland, Austro-Hungary, the Ottomans, and of grade Russia, while likewise harboring nationalistic ambitions that had been growing for a century amongst all people subjugated past the ever-hungry Empires. And like to the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990's, the situation was further complicated by each role of the bigger Ukraine considering itself as the truthful core of the nation that everyone else should naturally rally around.
WWI immune all of this out in the open. The Hungarian portion of Ukraine was probably the first to human action, as the Ukrainian Sich Riflemen formed the first military core of a self-proclaimed Ukrainian People's Republic, following their breakaway from the Austro-Hungarian military, which concluded up on the losing side of the war. But this was quickly followed by a behemothic mess of due east and w nationalists, anarchists, and multiple Communist factions. No i could agree on anything, and in the end, the Bolsheviks took control. The loss of life was colossal, equally the see-saw of war kept taking its price over the years. The ever shifting allegiances demonstrated complete lack of whatever sort of "national unity". The only constant seems to be that Ukrainians from all over hated everyone more or less every bit, until one side started winning, at which signal they became the focus.
This flow was determinative of the modern worldviews we are dealing with today. Despite the ever-irresolute reality of who was in control, the cultural and geographic differences were clear and easily manipulated. The Soviet propaganda machine really flourished in this atmosphere, only information technology was far from the only one. The Germans leveraged all the unresolved bitterness of the early 1920's to their fullest in the late 1930'due south, equally they prepared to invade the USSR, beginning in Western Ukraine.
The events of WWI largely repeated themselves during WWII. The far Westward of Ukraine allied itself with the Axis Powers, seeing the USSR, Stalin, and the Russian people in general as the main enemy. The Ukrainian Liberation Ground forces was a straight upward partitioning of the ⚡︎⚡︎ (and this is non up for fence) while the Ukrainian Insurgent Regular army saw itself as the truthful descendant of the Sich Riflemen and sought to unite all of the nation under its banner. But history repeated itself swiftly, every bit UPA proceeded to split up into its own factions, loosing its collective power and catastrophe up fighting a rather disorganized guerrilla war against everyone. However, its origins were even so tied to the Nazi forces, and many of its branches continued to fight on the side Federal republic of germany.
When the tables turned in 1943, this became a huge liability for UPA — one it could never overcome… The Soviet Union jumped on this with total strength of its propaganda, military, and NKVD police and never let become. Once the fight confronting Nazi Federal republic of germany became a total existential struggle and got elevated to the level of "sacred", anything that opposed information technology was hands labeled every bit truly evil.
And as Eastern Ukraine was already considered sufficiently russified, all the focus was on the Westward. In fact, Donbass had partly been part of Russia rather than Ukraine, as can exist seen in the 1920's map above. And by the 1940's, it was viewed by the USSR as the industrial core of the whole nation.
The Donbass offensive in 1943 was peradventure the 2d nigh important of WWII for Russia afterwards Stalingrad. The latter blocked Hitler's admission to the Caucasus and secured USSR'south supply of oil, while the return of Donbass apace reenergized the Soviet heavy industry and propelled the Soviet state of war machine to victory.
And so the war of words begins… The more unsure of success someone is, the more effort they put into the outward advent of it. Long earlier social media, this was done with posters and leaflets.
Run into if any of these seem oddly familiar… The Russian program failed! Ukraine held on to Kiev and is now on the offensive. The Russian military machine has proven to be junior and is doomed. Putin is sending his soldiers into a trap, and ruining ordinary Russian families.
And of grade the absolutely ridiculous claims that start popping upwards…
Meanwhile, the reality on the ground is somehow starting to wait more and more familiar…
I'll leave you with an unpopular prediction… History will once more (at least partly) echo itself, and Russian federation will cease upwards with full control of Eastern and Southern Ukraine. This time, there's no need to march all the manner to Berlin, and really no good reason to directly occupy Kyiv, but remember this line in a twelvemonth or two:
Aye, the underground UPA connected its campaign until 1949, and I believe this current iteration will drag out for years besides. Only eventually, everything will autumn into identify like it did in the belatedly 1920'south and over again in the late 1940's. NKVD lost on the gild of 30K people over a span of v or six years dorsum and so, just UPA lost nigh 10x that in the end…
Source: https://tim-piatenko.medium.com/all-of-this-has-happened-before-and-it-will-all-happen-again-61a38f1ea38
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